A Mixed Method Approach for the Analysis of Variable Renewable Energy
Integration in Developing and Fragile States
Abstract
The paper presents a mixed method approach for the analysis of power
systems in augmented uncertainty scenarios, related to the increasing
penetration of variable renewable energy and country specific
constraints to be found in fragile states.
In the formulated methodology, both deterministic and probabilistic load
flow have their own specific, necessary and interactive role. To
establish the soundness of the methodology, the analysis is conducted
for a real case study, along with wind speed measurements (eleven-month
duration), visual model validations, statistical and load flow analysis.
The probabilistic simulations are based on Monte Carlo (MC) analysis.
Synthetic data are created from probabilistic distribution functions
(PDF) calculated on original measured samples, operational constraints,
and load uncertainties. These data are processed by load flow
simulations and the results consolidated and analyzed.
To facilitate the implementation of the proposed methods, scripts
developed in Python programming language have been created for the
analysis of statistical data, sample generation, post processing, data
visualization and the interaction with conventional software for load
flow analysis. The scripts are made public and available for download.
The proposed methodology of analysis, conceptualized for developing and
fragile states, may also be used as a basis for all power system
planning where the number of uncertainties is no longer negligible, and
the use of deterministic methods alone would provide inadequate results.