A Mixed Method Approach for the Analysis of Variable Renewable Energy Integration in Developing and Fragile States
The paper presents a mixed method approach for the analysis of power systems in augmented uncertainty scenarios, related to the increasing penetration of variable renewable energy and country specific constraints to be found in fragile states.
In the formulated methodology, both deterministic and probabilistic load flow have their own specific, necessary and interactive role. To establish the soundness of the methodology, the analysis is conducted for a real case study, along with wind speed measurements (eleven-month duration), visual model validations, statistical and load flow analysis.
The probabilistic simulations are based on Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. Synthetic data are created from probabilistic distribution functions (PDF) calculated on original measured samples, operational constraints, and load uncertainties. These data are processed by load flow simulations and the results consolidated and analyzed.
To facilitate the implementation of the proposed methods, scripts developed in Python programming language have been created for the analysis of statistical data, sample generation, post processing, data visualization and the interaction with conventional software for load flow analysis. The scripts are made public and available for download.
The proposed methodology of analysis, conceptualized for developing and fragile states, may also be used as a basis for all power system planning where the number of uncertainties is no longer negligible, and the use of deterministic methods alone would provide inadequate results.