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Analysis and Forecast of novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) Cases in India: A Simplified Mathematical Model based on Growth and Recovery

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posted on 17.06.2020 by R R Rajalaxmi, Chockalingam Aravind Vaithilingam, Gayathri Sivasubramanian, Lalitha R
This work analyses the different phases of Covid-19 outbreak in India and performs progress of the disease spread. The data is collected from John Hopkins epidemiological data providing the latest data from January 31,2020 to May 31, 2020. A simple mathematical model is developed to gather a quantitative picture of the epidemic spreading with limited reference data. Further, we performed an analysis and forecast of the disease spread in different phases of lock down in the country. The profound model predictions considering the overall data exhibit that the numbers to reach peak between 28 August 2020 to 6 Sep 2020. As the pandemic still increases the number of infected cases, different quarantine levels would serve as an effective measure in containing the spread much earlier than the other similar cases.

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Email Address of Submitting Author

rrr@kongu.ac.in

Submitting Author's Institution

Kongu Engineering College

Submitting Author's Country

India

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