Bayesian Analysis of Power Outages in Reliability and Resilience Domains

This paper brings new insight to the resilience analysis, by comparing the outage probability risk of extreme windstorms in Europe (relatively rare events) and ”average” common failures of the power system, typically part of the reliability domain. The outcome of this work demonstrates that high-impact, low-frequency (HILF) events can actually result in higher outage probabilities than ”average” common faults, even when the frequency of their occurrence is significantly low. The presented methodology, relevant to a single node of the grid, can be easily scaled to larger and complex grids.