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Prediction of Global Spread of Covid-19 Pandemic: A Review and Research Challenges

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posted on 19.08.2020, 18:14 by Saloni Shah, Aos Mulahuwaish, Kayhan Ghafoor, Halgurd S. Maghdid

Since the initial reports of the Coronavirus surfacing in Wuhan, China; the novel virus currently without a cure has spread like a wildfire across the globe. The virus spread exponentially across all inhabited continent; catching local governments by surprise in many cases and bringing the world economy to a standstill. As local authorities work on a response to deal with the virus, the scientific community has stepped in to help analyse and predict the pattern and conditions that would influence the spread of this unforgiving virus. Using existing statistical modelling tools to latest AI technology; the scientific community has used public and privately available data to help with predictions. A lot of this data research has enabled local authorities to plan their response – whether that is to deploy tightly available medical resources like ventilators or how and when to enforce policies to social distance including lockdowns. On one hand, this paper shows what accuracy of research brings to enable fighting this disease; while on the other hand it also shows what lack of response from local authorities can do in spreading this virus. This is our attempt in compiling different research methods and comparing their accuracy in predicting the spread of COVID-19.

History

Email Address of Submitting Author

kayhan@ieee.org

ORCID of Submitting Author

https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9046-9475

Submitting Author's Institution

Salahaddin University-Erbil

Submitting Author's Country

United Kingdom

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Licence

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