Probabilistic Wind Power Forecasting with Missing Values via Adaptive Quantile Regression

Missing values challenge the probabilistic wind power forecasting at both parameter estimation and operational forecasting stages. In this paper, we illustrate that we are allowed to estimate forecasting functions for each missing patterns conveniently, and propose an adaptive quantile regression model whose parameters can adapt to missing patterns. For that, we particularly design a feature extraction block within the quantile regression model, where parameters are set as a function of missingness pattern and only account for observed values. To avoid the quantile-crossing phenomena, we design a multi-task model to ensure the monotonicity of quantiles, where higher quantiles are derived by the addition between lower quantiles and non-negative increments modeled by neural networks. The proposed approach is distribution-free and applicable to both missing-at-random and missing-not-at-random cases. 

Case studies demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves the state-of-the-art in terms of the continuous ranked probability score.