Short-Term Load Forecasting Method based on Empirical Wavelet Decomposition and BLSTM Neural Networks
preprintposted on 2021-09-10, 06:58 authored by Xiao-Yu ZhangXiao-Yu Zhang, Stefanie KuenzelStefanie Kuenzel, Nicolo ColomboNicolo Colombo, Chris WatkinsChris Watkins
Accurate short-term load forecasting is essential to the modern power system and smart grids; the utility can better implement demand-side management and operate the power system stable with a reliable forecasting system. The load demand contains a variety of different load components, and different loads operate with different frequencies. Conventional load forecasting models (linear regression (LR), Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), deep neural network, etc.) ignore frequency domain and can only use time-domain load demand as inputs. To make full use of both time domain and frequency domain features of the load demand, a hybrid component decomposition and deep neural network load forecasting model is proposed in this paper. The proposed model first filters noises via wavelet-based denoising technique, then decomposes the original load demand into several sublayers to show the frequency features while the time domain information is preserved as well. Then bidirectional LSTM model is trained for each sub-layer independently. To better tunning the hyperparameters, a Bayesian hyperparameter optimization algorithm is adopted in this paper. Three case studies are designed to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. From the results, it is found that the proposed model improves RMSE by 66.59% and 84.06%, comparing to other load forecasting models.