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ADAPTEN: Adaptive Ensembles Leveraging Feature Engineering for Real-Time Market Analysis
  • Fiza Noor,
  • Inam Ullah Khan
Fiza Noor
Department of Mathematics, COMSATS University Islamabad
Inam Ullah Khan
Department of Computer Science, Edge Hill University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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In an era of significant economic volatility, time series forecasting is widely used to predict stock prices and guide investors in trading decisions. Nevertheless, existing data-driven techniques are unable to effectively handle the vast amount of financial data due to big data constraints such as nonlinearity, non-stationarity, heteroskedasticity, and unsynchronicity. A cohesive framework is also required for ensuring the smooth integration and synchronization of varied methodologies in timeseries financial prediction tasks. To address this problem, this paper introduces a novel framework that investigates three ensemble strategies: blending, stacking, and voting, and selects the best method to perform the stock trend prediction task. Specifically, we deploy four distinct machine learning algorithms as the base learning model, each of which is uncorrelated and proficient in a different way depending on the task. The outputs of the basis classifiers are then combined using the adaptive boosting algorithm, a meta classifier, to give the final prediction results. To augment predictive models's accuracy and generalization capabilities, we put forward strategies like feature engineering and Ridge regularization, which optimize the pertinence of data and curb overfitting. Our examination of five distinct case studies on Toronto Stock Exchange data reveals that the proposed multimodel ensemble method has superior performance compared to others.
02 Mar 2024Submitted to TechRxiv
04 Mar 2024Published in TechRxiv