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A Complex Network Analysis of the OPEC Crude Oil Trade Network
  • Saumya Vilas Roy,
  • Manoj BS
Saumya Vilas Roy

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Quantification and analysis of global oil trade networks reveals deep insights into a nation's development and influence at a global scale. Further, it allows us to predict future trends and changes to adapt state policy as the crude oil market influences the balance of power among the developed and emerging economies alike as it is central for energy needs as well for industrial progress. In this paper we analyzed the crude oil export data from 2016 to 2022 from Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies (OPEC+) using complex networks in order to quantify and create a comparison metric between the exporting and importing nations to identify changes in the trade network. Our analysis revealed that that subsequent to the COVID-19 pandemic, even after sizable economic recovery, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is unable to maintain pre-pandemic levels of trade due to multiple factors such as the rise of the USA as the leading oil exporter [14] [15], global financial sanctions on Russian federation resulting in influx of discounted oil in the markets [16], shift of world towards renewable energy [17] etc. As entering 2022 with the recovery of global oil trade the increase was 8.09% as compared to the loss of 12.35% on the onset of 2020. Our study also opens up possible research work in this direction about other major non-OPEC oil exporters and quantify how their control is increasing over the market.
11 May 2024Submitted to TechRxiv
17 May 2024Published in TechRxiv