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Prediction of Dominant designs with Technological Product Phylogenetic Networks
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  • Youwei He ,
  • Jeong-Dong Lee ,
  • Dawoon Jeong ,
  • Sungjun Choi ,
  • Jiyong Kim
Youwei He
Seoul National University, Seoul National University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Jeong-Dong Lee
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Dawoon Jeong
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Sungjun Choi
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Jiyong Kim
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Abstract

This study proposes an effective method to predict the development of technology from an evolutionary perspective. Product evolution is the result of technological evolution and market selection. A phylogenetic network is the main method to study product evolution. The formation of the dominant design determines the trajectory of technology development. How to predict future dominant design has become a key issue in technology forecasting and new product development. This study uses machine learning methods, combined with product evolutionary theory, and constructs a Fully Connected Phylogenetic Network dataset to effectively predict the future dominant design.