The role of sector coupling in the green transition: A least-cost energy
system development in North Europe towards 2050
Abstract
This paper analyses the role of sector coupling towards 2050 in the
energy system of North Europe when pursuing the green transition.
Impacts of restricted onshore wind potential and transmission expansion
are considered. Optimisation of the capacity development and operation
of the energy system towards 2050 is performed with the energy system
model Balmorel. Generation, storage, transmission expansion, district
heating, carbon capture and storage, and synthetic gas units compete
with each other. The results show how sector coupling leads to a change
of paradigm: The electricity system moves from a system where generation
adapts to inflexible demand, to a system where flexible demand adapts to
variable generation. Sector coupling increases electricity demand,
variable renewable energy, heat storage, and electricity and district
heating transmission expansion towards 2050. Allowing investments in
onshore wind and electricity transmission reduces emissions and costs
considerably (especially with high sector coupling) with savings of 78.7
EUR2016/person/year. Investments in electricity-to-heat units are key to
reduce costs and emissions in the heat sector. The scenarios with the
highest sector coupling achieve the highest emission reduction by 2045:
76% greenhouse gases reduction with respect to 1990 levels, which
highlights the value of sector coupling to achieve the green transition.