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An Investigation of the Structural Characteristics of the Indian IT Sector and the Capital Goods Sector -- An Application of the R Programming in Time Series Decomposition and Forecasting
  • Jaydip Sen ,
  • Tamal Datta Chaudhuri
Jaydip Sen
Praxis Business School

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Tamal Datta Chaudhuri
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Time series analysis and forecasting of stock market prices has been a very active area of research over the last two decades. Availability of extremely fast and parallel architecture of computing and sophisticated algorithms has made it possible to extract, store, process and analyze high volume stock market time series data very efficiently. In this paper, we have used time series data of the two sectors of the Indian economy – Information Technology (IT) and Capital Goods (CG) for the period January 2009 – April 2016 and have studied the relationships of these two time series with the time series of DJIA indices, NIFTY indices and the US Dollar to Indian Rupees exchange rate. We established by graphical and statistical tests that while the IT sector of India has a strong association with DJIA indices and the Dollar to Rupee exchange rate, the Indian CG sector exhibits a strong association with the NIFTY indices. We contend that these observations corroborate our hypotheses that the Indian IT sector is strongly coupled with the world economy whereas the CG sector of India is the reflection of India’s internal economic growth. We also present several models of regression between the time series which exhibit strong association among them. The effectiveness of these models have been demonstrated by very low values of their forecasting errors.