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Risk-based constraints for the optimal operation of an energy community
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  • Mihály Dolányi ,
  • Kenneth Bruninx ,
  • Jean-François Toubeau ,
  • Erik Delarue
Mihály Dolányi
KU Leuven, KU Leuven, KU Leuven

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Kenneth Bruninx
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Jean-François Toubeau
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Erik Delarue
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Abstract

This paper formulates an energy community’s centralized optimal bidding and scheduling problem as a time-series scenario-driven stochastic optimization model, building on real-life measurement data. In the presented model, a surrogate battery storage system with uncertain state-of-charge (SoC) bounds approximates the portfolio’s aggregated flexibility.
First, it is emphasized in a stylized analysis that risk-based energy constraints are highly beneficial (compared to chance-constraints) in coordinating distributed assets with unknown costs of constraint violation, as they limit both violation magnitude and probability. The presented research extends state-of-the-art models by implementing a worst-case conditional value at risk (WCVaR) based constraint for the storage SoC bounds. Then, an extensive numerical comparison is conducted to analyze the trade-off between out-of-sample violations and expected objective values, revealing that the proposed WCVaR based constraint shields significantly better against extreme out-of-sample outcomes than the conditional value at risk based equivalent.
To bypass the non-trivial task of capturing the underlying time and asset-dependent uncertain processes, real-life measurement data is directly leveraged for both imbalance market uncertainty and load forecast errors. For this purpose, a shape-based clustering method is implemented to capture the input scenarios’ temporal characteristics.
Nov 2022Published in IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid volume 13 issue 6 on pages 4551-4561. 10.1109/TSG.2022.3185310