loading page

Clarifying the Interpretation and Use of the LOLE Resource Adequacy Metric
  • +7
  • Gord Stephen ,
  • Simon H. Tindemans ,
  • John Fazio ,
  • Chris Dent ,
  • Armando Figueroa Acevedo ,
  • Bagen Bagen ,
  • Alex Crawford ,
  • Andreas Klaube ,
  • Douglas Logan ,
  • Daniel Burke
Gord Stephen
University of Washington, University of Washington

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Simon H. Tindemans
Author Profile
John Fazio
Author Profile
Chris Dent
Author Profile
Armando Figueroa Acevedo
Author Profile
Bagen Bagen
Author Profile
Alex Crawford
Author Profile
Andreas Klaube
Author Profile
Douglas Logan
Author Profile
Daniel Burke
Author Profile


The loss-of-load expectation (LOLE) risk metric has been used in probabilistic power system resource adequacy assessment for over 70 years, and today is one of the most recognizable and widely-used measures of system shortfall risk. However, this wide adoption has been accompanied by ambiguities and inconsistencies in its definition and application. This paper provides a unifying reference for defining the metric as it relates to modern analyses, while clarifying a number of common points of confusion in its application. In particular, the paper clarifies that LOLE is not a measure of expected total shortfall duration, a 2.4 hours per year LOLE target implies a less reliable system than a 1 day in 10 years (0.1 days per year) LOLE target, and exact conversions between hourly and daily LOLE targets are not generally possible. Illustrative examples are provided to help explain each of these points.